Friday, September 13, 2013

Bond Yield going SREITs going (DBSV)

Bond Yield going   SREITs going  

.Position for a short-term rebound in S-REITs as bond yield looks poised for a pullback
.S-REITs picks – AREIT, Suntec REIT, MCT & CDL HT


Start of QE tapering fully anticipated – Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave financial markets nearly four months to prepare for QE tapering, which feels like a “millennium” in high-speed financial markets. US 10-year bond yield, for example, has risen from 1.63% at the beginning of May to touch the critical 3% level last week. Equities have also reacted with S-REITs bearing the brunt of the selling in recent months. The FTSE ST REIT underperformed, falling 20% from May’s high.


The start and end dates, as well as the pace of QE tapering are among the most widely discussed and debated issues in recent times. Consensus expects the process to: (1) start as soon as next week’s FOMC meeting with a US$10bn cut to US$75bn; and, (2) end by mid-2014.

US 10-year bond yield poised for a pullback – Using Elliot wave pattern observation and projection, our technical view for the US 10-year bond yield is that the rise which started from 1.63% (beginning in the month of May) is about to complete (or already completed) a 5-wave up sequence. A downward retracement follows this completion that can see yield level pull back to 2.68% (23.6% downward retracement) or even 2.48% (38.2% downward retracement) in the coming weeks/months ahead before turning up again.

This technical view blends with our economist’s skepticism that the Fed has the stamina and right ammunition to progressively reduce QE such that all US$85bn/mth purchase will be entirely removed by the middle of next year. He notes that structural employment growth in the US heath care sector as well as part-time and restaurant workers are greatly overstating the recent improvement in non-farm payrolls. Furthermore, the recent increase in interest rates has negatively affected US mortgage applications and new home sales.

US 10-year yield could pull back off the c.3% mark if: (1) QE tapering is delayed till after September; or, (2) the initial tapering amount is less than US$10bn; or, (3) the Fed’s forward statement is dovish. Three ‘ifs’ but given that financial markets have had four months to react, it’s not hard to imagine that investors can swing somewhat in the other direction should any of the ‘ifs’ materializes.




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: DBSV-Research,
Publish date: 12/09/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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