Sunday, September 15, 2013

Beware of China bubble: Faber

Beware of China bubble: Faber
Posted on 11 September 2013 - 05:39am
Liew Jia Teng
sunbiz@thesundaily.com

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 11, 2013): Marc Faber, known as "Doctor Doom" in the investment circle, plans to keep his shares in Malayan Banking Bhd and Public Bank Bhd because they let him "sleep well at night".

"Unlike US banks, Malaysia's are solid and they do not involve in derivatives or gamble," he told a press conference after giving a presentation entitled "Investment Strategy – Where's the Money?" here today.

"Malaysia may not be seen as an exciting market and the stock market is certainly not cheap, but this is a well-balanced economy and stable enough to let you sleep soundly at night," he said.


He said that despite Fitch Ratings recent negative outlook on Malaysia, the country stood out relatively well compared to other emerging countries.

Marc Faber, the author of the Gloom, Doom & Boom Report, views China's huge credit bubble, one that had been growing rapidly since 2008, as the next global financial crisis hot spot.

"The inflation in China is much higher than it seems. Credit growth in China will slow down. It is very much depends on whether they're going into hard landing or soft landing, but this will inevitably lead to economic slowdown in emerging markets," he said.

He sees the colossal credit bubble in China that had been expanding rapidly since 2008 as the next biggest risk to global economic growth.

While he is wary about China, the author of the Tomorrow's Gold – Asia's Age of Discovery is keeping his faith in Asia, even if the Chinese bubble will burst eventually.

"Between now and then, there will be opportunity in various asset classes. I recommend the investors to take a balanced approach to invest in equity, corporate bond, real-estate and gold," Faber told his audience during a luncheon talk organised by MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd.

While he believes that equity prices are not likely to go up significantly from current levels, investors should keep their holdings in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, as these markets do not have huge downward risks.

To beat the market, he said, investors should to pay more attention to stocks with low price-to-earning (PE) and low price to sales ratios.

He likes high dividend stocks.

"We are in a bull market that is in the tail-end instead of the beginning but that does not mean prices will collapse. I don't think that stocks are the greatest bargain anymore, but it's not that expensive either," Faber said.

"Consumer sector is not going to explode but it will grow and the companies will expand their market share," he said.

On plantation stocks, he says they may recover if palm oil prices regain its upward momentum.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: thesundaily.com
Publish date:11/09/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
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“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

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高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
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1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
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