Saturday, September 28, 2013

AirAsia: Indonesia – an increasingly important piece to strengthen regional presence (TA)

AirAsia Berhad
TP: RM 3.91
Last Traded: RM2.66
Indonesia – an increasingly important piece to strengthen regional presence

We met up with the management of Indonesia AirAsia (IAA) recently to gain some insights into the IAA’s operating track record in Indonesia, near-term targets as well as its initial public offering plan. Key takeaways from the meeting are as follows:
i) IAA is expected to maintain its pole position in the international segment;
ii) Its domestic market share is expected to hit 7% by end 2013 from 5% as at 2Q13;
iii) It is looking to close up the margin gap with MAA and TAA, and
iv) The proposed IPO plan could experience further delays.


Forecast
We tweak IAA’s earnings forecast slightly after fine-tuning our margins assumptions. The 49% share of profits from IAA is estimated at RM36.2mn/RM50.0mn/RM67.1mn respectively for FY13/14/15. Net impact to AsiaAsia group’s FY13/14/15 core earnings is -0.1%/0.8%/1.6% respectively.

Valuation
In tandem with the earnings adjustments, our target price is revised to RM3.91/share from RM3.88/share previously, based on an unchanged target CY14 PER of 12x. AirAsia Group’s valuation remains undemanding at just 8.2x CY14 earnings vis-à-vis the average CY14 PER of 11.8x for its regional peers. Maintain Buy.



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: TA-Research,
Publish date: 24/09/13

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