Thursday, August 8, 2013

Yongnam : Weak margins, slow order book (DBSV)

Yongnam Holdings Ltd:
FULLY VALUED (downgrade from BUY); S$0.31;
Weak margins, slow order book
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.28 (Prev S$ 0.41)

•2Q13 results below expectations on weak margins
•Delay in Yangon Airport tender results weakens near term catalyst
•Poor outlook as margins remain pressured and order book shrinks; cut FY13F/FY14F earnings by 44%/25%
•Downgrade to FULLY VALUED, TP lowered to S$0.28

Below expectations.  2Q13 results were below expectations.  Net profit declined by 29% to S$8.6m, despite sales growing by 47% to S$115.1m. This was due to lower gross margins and a S$5m provision as one customer involved in 2 packages of Downtown Line work filed for insolvency.  1H13 earnings now stand at S$20m, making up 36% of our previous full year estimate of S$55.7m.


Winning bidder for Yangon Airport project yet to be announced.  Myanmar’s Department of Civil Aviation has yet to announce the winning bid since the end July deadline.  We believe sentiment for the stock could wane if the winning bid is not announced within a reasonable period of time, or if Yongnam does not win the project.  We have not factored any financial impact of this project into our estimates.

FY13/14F earnings slashed by 44%/25%.  As we envisage a weaker outlook ahead on lower order book and weak margins, we cut FY13F/FY14F earnings by 44%/25%.  We believe core earnings growth will be slightly negative in FY14F on the back of low project wins in 1H13 before picking up in FY15F on Thomson Line’s contribution.

Downgrade to FULLY VALUED, TP lowered to S$0.28. We recognize that Yongnam is still in the running for the Yangon Airport project since results have yet to be officially announced.  As such, we continue to value the stock at 10x forward earnings. Rolling over to a lower FY14F earnings base, our TP is cut to S$0.28. Downgrade to FULLY VALUED.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: DBSV-Research,
Publish date: 06/08/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock