Tuesday, August 13, 2013

StarHub Ltd: Decent 2Q13 showing; but risks remain (OCBC)

StarHub Ltd:
Fair value S$3.82
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.20
versus: Current price S$4.27

Decent 2Q13 showing; but risks remain
• 1H earnings met 53% of FY forecast
• No change to previous guidance
• Downside risks remain

StarHub Ltd reported a decent set of 2Q13 results, with revenue down 0.7% YoY (+1.2% QoQ); net profit improved 15.9% YoY and 10.3% to S$100.6m. StarHub declared a quarterly S$0.05/share dividend as guided.
For 1H13, revenue slipped 1.2% to S$1166.9m, or about 46.4% of our full-year forecast, while net profit climbed 9.5% to S$191.8m, meeting 53.2% of FY13 estimate. For 2013, StarHub has kept its previous guidance; it also does not expect the BPL cross-carriage to have a material financial impact. Despite the decent 2Q13 showing, we opt to keep our FY13 estimates, as potential margin pressures are likely to emerge in 2H. Maintain SELL on the stock with an unchanged DCF-based fair value of S$3.82.

Decent 2Q13 showing
StarHub Ltd reported a decent set of 2Q13 results, with revenue down 0.7% YoY (+1.2% QoQ) due to lower handset sales, and this resulted in an improvement in service EBITDA margin from 33.3% from 31.2% in 1Q13. Correspondingly, net profit improved 15.9% YoY and 10.3% to S$100.6m. StarHub declared a quarterly S$0.05/share dividend as guided. For 1H13, revenue slipped 1.2% to S$1166.9m, or about 46.4% of our full-year forecast, while net profit climbed 9.5% to S$191.8m, meeting 53.2% of FY13 estimate.

Keeping its 2013 guidance
For 2013, StarHub continues to expect low single-digit revenue growth, unchanged from its previous guidance; this as the overall market remains competitive and challenging. In particular, it expects price competition in the broadband arena to remain intense. In addition, it has kept its service EBITDA margin at 31% (versus 33.7% in 1H13), where the launch of new LTE-enabled phones is likely to drive up customer acquisition and re-contract costs. Capex remains at 13% of operating revenue; the group also intends to maintain its annual cash dividend of S$0.20/share, or $0.05 per quarter.

BPL cross-carriage likely non-event
While StarHub will be able to cross carry the widely-followed BPL (Barclays Premier League) live matches for the upcoming 2013 to 2016 seasons, it does not expect the move to have a material financial impact. Although StarHub has revealed new “Surf & Bundles” with a S$300 rebate for new customers to watch BPL on its cable TV platform, we note that SingTel has responded with its own packages, dangling a S$480 discount for new and existing customers.

Keeping our SELL call
Despite the decent 2Q13 showing, we opt to keep our FY13 estimates, as potential margin pressures are likely to emerge in 2H. Maintain SELL on the stock with an unchanged DCF-based fair value of S$3.82.



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: OCBC-Research,
Publish date: 07/08/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock