Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Singapore Strategy: Rocky ride ahead (DBSV)

Singapore Strategy: Rocky ride ahead

•Rocky ride ahead, start of QE tapering could offer temporary respite
•Prefer recovery proxies in US/Europe with yield support
•Stay away from stocks with emerging market exposure
•Key picks are STE, Venture, CSE, Hi-P, HPHT, Ezion, Goodpack, Comfort Delgro and Singapore Post

Held hostage by emerging markets uncertainties. The reversal in fund flows out of Asia and emerging markets back to developed economies, triggered by the anticipation of QE tapering, rising US 10-year treasury yields and a rebound in the USD, Euro and GBP had exposed the structural vulnerabilities of emerging market economies with high current account deficits. While the Singapore market has outperformed regional bourses, we expect a rocky ride for Singapore equities, held hostage by the still developing emerging markets uncertainties.

 
Start of QE tapering could offer temporary respite.  STI has fallen 10% to 3088 sinceMay 22 when FED Chairman first hinted of QE tapering. We are close to the support level of 3050, at 13.1x PE (-0.5SD). Consensus has been expecting the FED to start to taper in Sept, a positive signal that the US is on a firmer footing for recovery, which could provide some stability to the market. Recovery names should outperform in this situation while yield sensitive sectors such as SREITs will remain under pressure. If tapering of QE is pushed back, volatility continues, and could push STI to test 2900 (12.9x PE or -1 SD) if the sell-down in emerging economies continues.

Recovery proxies in US and Europe.Growing optimism about the improving US recovery and Europe’s economy moving past the recession trough should see a return in interest among recovery names and companies with significant revenue exposure in both regions. Technology stocks are early recovery plays – CSE and Venture have significant exposure to US/Europe and offer attractive yields of 4.7% and 6.7% respectively. CSE’s proposed listing of its UK subsidiary could lead to a dividend bonanza on successful listing. Selected industrials – Ezion and Goodpack will leverage on their niche positions in the global arena.  Stocks with earnings visibility supported by yield are likely to remain in favour - our picks are SingPost, Comfort Delgro,.ST Engineering and Hutchison Port.

Shying away from emerging markets exposure
Avoid stocks with exposure to emerging markets which are likely to underperform.  Petra, Acott REIT should see some impact from the weak Rupiah while Religare and AIT will be affected by the weak Rupiah and spike in bond yields. SingTel is caught in the currency storm with 42% of earnings from emerging markets (Indonesia, Philippines and India) and 25% from Australia.



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: DBSV-Research,
Publish date: 26/08/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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