Wednesday, August 21, 2013

S-REITs & consumer goods underperformed, banks outperformed (DBSV)

S-REITs & consumer goods underperformed, banks outperformed

S-REITs are likely to underperform in the current environment where bond yields are underpinned by an impending cut in QE. Among the blue chips, bank stocks have outperformed as loan growth improves and NIM remains stable. Still, a pullback to consolidate recent gains is possible. We see support for UOB shares at $20.90 and that for OCBC at $10.22.

Among the SMCs, we look for recovery names that offer yield as well such as Venture Corp & Jaya. Venture Corp shares offer a 7% yield and 2H is expected to show improvement with new customer contributions. Our analyst is optimistic of Jaya’s transformation into a ship charterer from a builder. Revenue visibility is improving as the group has secured several chartering contracts in recent months. Stock offers 5.7% forward yield.


The chart below shows the relative performance of FTSE Sector Indices since July 12, the date when STI’s rebound from late June stalled and started to turn choppy. We note the following:
1. S-REITs have weakened again with investors becoming more fixated on the possibility that the FED will start reducing QE come September. US 10-year treasury yields have rebounded back to YTD high level at c.2.7%. The MAS 10-yr bond yield has also picked up from the recent low of 2.34% to the current 2.43%%. The technical rebound of the FTSE ST REITs Index from 718 fizzled out at 771 on July 24th. The index is currently at 733. The progress of QE tapering in coming months should continue to weigh on S-REITs.

2. FTSE ST Consumer Goods Index is the worst performing. The sector is weighed down by weakness in CPO stocks after most reported weaker-than-expected quarterly earnings. We have downgraded Wilmar International to HOLD from Buy as quarterly results disappointed and going forward, there is risk that refining margin may deteriorate even as CPO output recovery stays muted.

3. FTSE ST Telecommunications Index has started to underperform from August. We have HOLD ratings for all 3 telcos. We trimmed SingTel’s FY14F/FY15F earnings by 3.5% owing to the weak AUD and lower margins at Enterprise business. Given the low-single digit growth prospects & 4.5% yield, the stock is not cheap at +2SD of mean valuation.

4. FTSE ST Finance Index has outperformed, underpinned by bank stocks. Bank stocks are seen as resilient on the back of improving loan growth while NIM has stayed stable. Post results, our analyst upgraded the recommendation for both UOB (to Hold from Fully Valued) and OCBC (to Buy from Hold). Still, a pullback to consolidate recent gains is possible. We see support for UOB shares at $20.90 and that for OCBC at $10.22.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: DBSV-Research,
Publish date: 19/08/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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