Saturday, August 3, 2013

Pavilion REIT : Unsurprising Pavilion (CIMB)

Pavilion REIT
Current RM1.45
Target RM1.53
Unsurprising Pavilion

 Pavilion's 1H12 core net profit of RM106.2m was in line with our and consensus forecasts, accounting for 50% of our and consensus full-year estimates. There were no surprises at its semi-annual results call.

We maintain our Neutral recommendation on Pavilion REIT. We cut our DDM-based target price to RM1.53, from RM1.59, as we adjusted our risk-free rate assumptions in view of the rising 10-year MGS yields. Given the upward pressure on MGS yields, currently at 4.09%, Pavilion's yields of 5.2-5.4% are rather unattractive.


DPU of 1.79 sen in 2Q
Pavilion declared an income distribution of 3.65 sen for 1H13. This comprises 1.79 sen in 2Q13 and 1.86 sen in 1Q13. Pavilion is on track to meet our full-year estimate of 7.4 sen.

Review of 2Q13 results
Pavilion REIT's revenues in the 2Q13 grew by 10% yoy to RM91.1m, driven mainly by retail rentals from the Fashion Avenue, which started contributions in 3Q12, and Pavilion Tower's full occupancy from 3Q12 onwards. Net property income was higher 7% yoy at RM65.6m as property operating expenses were higher due to planned preventive maintenance work. Qoq revenues and earnings were down due to the higher percentage rent in 1Q13 in relation to higher sales by tenants during the festive season.

67% of NLA up for reversion
For 2013, 67% of Pavilion's net lettable area (NLA) is up for rental reversions. YTD, leases for c.50% of the 67% has been renewed, while another 35% is currently in advanced negotiations. We understand that the 50% reversions were at a rate of 10-15%. We expect to get a clearer picture of Pavilion's rental reversions after everything has been completed, which is expected by Sep.




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: CIMB-Research,
Publish date: 02/08/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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