Friday, August 23, 2013

Malaysia Bulk Carriers : Dry bulk segment still bleeding (MIDF)

Malaysia Bulk Carriers
Price (21 August 2013) RM1.75
Target Price RM1.90
Maintain NEUTRAL
Dry bulk segment still bleeding

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
1H13 net profit was below expectations, mainly due to continued losses in the dry bulk division.
Tanker segment posted a small PBT gain of RM2.1m in 2Q13 on the back of better freight rate and higher hire days.
POSH associate earnings contribution was higher at RM18.2m in 2Q13 against RM13.4m in 1Q13. The IPO debut of the associate is expected to be completed in the final quarter of this year.
Maintain NEUTRAL with unchanged TP of RM1.90, pegging it to Sum-of-Parts method.


Earnings below expectations. For 1H13, Maybulk reported a net profit of RM22.2m, translating into a year-on-year decline of -29.5%. Again, the large chunk of earnings was supported by the contribution from its associate, POSH, while the dry bulk division was still loss-making.

Smaller quantum of losses in dry bulk. The dry bulk division posted smaller pre-tax loss of –RM5.2m in 2Q13 as compared to the first quarter of –RM9.9m due to the slow recovery of charter rate. 2Q13 time charter rate improved by +12%qoq to USD9.2k/day. The tanker segment delivered a small gain of RM2.1m in 2Q13 on the back of better freight rate and higher earnings days.

FY13 should be the bottom of the cycle year. The target spending on railway network in China helped improve import demand of iron ore and other dry bulk commodities. The current orderbook for dry bulkers had fell to 17% from a historical high of 74% during the Financial Crisis 2008. Due to limited growth in vessel supply and healthy demand, we reiterate our view that the dry bulk business cycle is at the bottom and we should see a more meaningful recovery by FY14-15.

Stronger contribution in associate earnings. On the bright side, the Singapore associate contributed record earnings of RM18.2m in 2Q13 as compared to RM13.4m in 1Q13. The IPO debut of the POSH group in SGX will be completed by the end of this year with an estimated market capitalization of nearly USD1b upon listing. Maybulk is expected to recognize a one-off gain from the IPO listing of the POSH group.

Maintain NEUTRAL with unchanged TP of RM1.90. We reduce our FY13-14 earnings by –39.1% and -34.5% to reflect the dismal performance of the dry bulk division in 1H13. The continued losses in dry bulk shipping should be moderately negated by the improvement in associate earnings. Hence, we are maintaining our NEUTRAL recommendation with unchanged TP of RM1.90. Our valuation is derived from Sum-of-Parts method (see table below).


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: MIDF-Research,
Publish date: 22/08/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock