Monday, August 5, 2013

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust: 2Q13 results as expected (OCBC)

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust:
Fair value S$0.49
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.036
versus: Current price S$0.500

2Q13 results as expected
• 0.93 S cent DPU
• Hoping for at least one acquisition in 2013
• Raise discount rate; Trim FV to S$0.49

LMIRT posted 2Q13 gross rental income of S$40.1m, up 30.2% YoY. The increase was mainly due to the acquisition of the six new malls in 4Q12, and positive rental reversions of 15.5% for the existing malls.
Distributable income increased by 19.5% YoY to S$20.5m and DPU climbed 17.7% YoY to 0.93 S cents. Results for the quarter were in line with our expectations and consensus’. 1H13 DPU of 1.82 S cent forms 50.6% of our FY13 estimate. To reflect the recent sharp increase in the Indonesian 10-year risk-free rate, we trim our DDM-based FV to S$0.49 from S$0.52 and maintain our HOLD rating on LMIRT. We estimate a FY13F yield of 7.2%.

2Q13 in line
LMIRT posted 2Q13 gross rental income of S$40.1m, up 30.2% YoY. The increase was mainly due to the acquisition of the six new malls in 4Q12, and positive rental reversions of 15.5% for the existing malls. Total revenue (equivalent to gross rental income in 2Q13) fell 12.5% YoY due to the inclusion of service charge and utilities recovery income from the malls’ operational activities in 2Q12. Such activities have been outsourced to a third party operating company with effect from 1 May 2012 and there is also a related decrease in expenses registered in 2Q13. Distributable income increased by 19.5% YoY to S$20.5m and DPU climbed 17.7% YoY to 0.93 S cents. Results for the quarter were in line with our expectations and consensus’. 1H13 DPU of 1.82 S cent forms 50.6% of our FY13 estimate.

Financial flexibility
Gearing remains healthy at 24.2%. LMIRT may refinance the S$147.5m term loan due June 2014 as early as late 2013. Approximately 68% of LMIRT’s S$1.77b portfolio remains unencumbered, providing LMIRT with financial flexibility for future acquisitions. Management hopes to acquire at least one property this year. We understand that ~65% of the cash flow from the properties for 2H13 should be hedged for depreciation of IDR against SGD. As at 30 Jun, overall occupancy was 95.1%, versus 93.8% as at 31 Mar 2013, and higher than the industry average of 85.7% (Colliers). Occupancy at Pluit Village increased to 86.7% from 75.5% (1Q13) because Carrefour reopened in June.

Maintain HOLD
To reflect the recent sharp increase in the Indonesian 10-year risk-free rate, we trim our DDM-based FV to S$0.49 from S$0.52 and maintain our HOLD rating on LMIRT. We estimate a FY13F yield of 7.2%.



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: OCBC-Research,
Publish date: 02/08/13

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