Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Golden Agri Resources 2QFY13 Results Let The Street Down (RHB)

Golden Agri Resources
Target Price: SGD0.63
Price: SGD0.53
2QFY13 Results Let The Street Down

We maintain our BUY call on GGR with the FV unchanged at SGD0.63. Although 1HFY13 earnings fell short of the consensus estimate, it was well within our forecast. The stock is, at worst, fairly valued. We believe the company is the best positioned for a mergers and acquisition (M&A) exercise, and, should acquisitions materialise, its stock valuation could turn out to be lower than currently priced in.

• Short of consensus. GGR’s annualised 1HFY13 core earnings were in line with our forecast of USD319.5m. However, they fell short of consensus expectations by 20.0% (mean estimate).


• Earnings revision. Given that 2H is typically stronger, it does appear that our forecast is too conservative. As such, we have tweaked up our FY13 forecast by 5.5% to USD337.1m. However, we have also trimmed our FY14 net profit forecast marginally to USD358.7m from USD360.8m previously.

• Production weaker than expected. Nucleus fresh fruit bunches (FFB)production fell by 8.9% q-o-q in 2QFY13, resulting in 1HFY13 production being only 1.0% higher compared to our earlier assumption of 10% growth for FY13. Thus, we are trimming our FY13 production growth assumption to 8% and 6% (8% previously) for FY14.

• Driving up cost per tonne. Due to weak production and increase in headcount, cash cost per tonne rose to USD352 per tonne in 1HFY13from USD298 last year.

• Realised price. The realised crude palm oil (CPO) price has been stronger than what we expected, at USD808 vs our USD787 per tonne assumption. As a result, we have raised our effective price for FY13 to USD796, after factoring in the higher-than-expected prices for 1H.

• Better outlook next year. We are maintaining our BUY call on GGR on the improved outlook for the sector next year, although we acknowledge there could be some stock price weakness as the consensus numbers are trimmed.




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: RHB-Research,
Publish date: 05/08/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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