Saturday, August 17, 2013

AirAsia - Watch Out For Yields

AirAsia -
Price Target:3.94
Last Price:3.16
Watch Out For Yields

AIRA’s 2QFY13 earnings  are expected to be within our estimates, with core earnings likely to inch higher  (+3% q-o-q; +5% y-o-y). Yields  may face competitive pressure, although  2Q passenger volume has grown. BUY call on AIRA maintained and MYR3.94 FV unchanged, premised at 13.0x FY14F P/E – in line with the average multiples of its peers.

- Earnings to be satisfactory.  AIRA is expected to announce 1HFY13 earnings on 21 Aug after market close. We expect its  numbers to be satisfactory and within our expectations.
2QFY13 earnings  are likely to inch higher 3% q-o-q and 5% y-o-y on the back of revenue growth of 4% and 10% respectively. The main highlight to watch for is how AIRA’s yields will fair due to  Malindo’s  emergence in the domestic low cost carrier space. We expect yields to start seeing pressure  –  dropping by 4% – although this will be offset by higher ancillary revenue per pax, thus narrowing the drop in overall FY13 yields to 2%. However we expect the yields downside to be mitigated by higher associate profits and lower fuel costs, as jet fuel came in lower y-o-y and q-o-q by 7.0% and 10.0% respectively.

- 2QFY13 operating statistics within expectations. Despite competition from Malindo  – which commenced operations in late March  –  AIRA continues to report passenger numbers growth in 2QFY13.  Revenue passenger kilometre (RPK) grew (+5.6% q-o-q; +12.7% y-o-y) while aintaining its number of aircraft at 66, thus giving boost to its  load factor to 79.9% (78.5% previously). YTD, 1HFY13 RPK accounted  for 48% our FY13 estimate, which is deemed within expectations.  2QFY13 growth was attributed to higher flight frequency to  Kuching, Bintulu and Langkawi on the domestic side, and Kuala Lumpur to Tiruchirappalli (India) and Lombok (Indonesia) internationally.

- Maintain BUY. We are comfortable with our earnings forecast,  which remains unchanged. We maintain our BUY call on AIRA  with our FV intact at MYR3.94, premised at 13.0x FY14F P/E, which is the average peers multiple. To add on, the listing of associate Indonesia AirAsia (IAA) sometime in 4QCY13 or 1QCY14 will crystallise valuations. On a RNAV basis, pricing in the valuation  of AIRA’s listed holdings, the carrier is valued at MYR4.04 – IAA’s valuation not priced in.


Source: RHB


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: http://klse.i3investor.com/
Publish date: 16/08/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock