Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Tat Hong : Fear not, for it is not apocalypse (CIMB)

Tat Hong Holdings
Current S$1.19
Target S$1.75
Fear not, for it is not apocalypse


 TAT’s recent share-price weakness is reminiscent of its mid-Apr fall. But this time around, we believe sentiment is the cause. Its crane-rental division is still strong in all key markets, though there is some translation impact from its Australia-barricaded distribution division.

We conservatively lower our FY14-16EPS by 2-4% for lower Australian contributions from A$ weakness. Accordingly, we lower our target price, still at11x CY14 P/E (its 5-year average forward P/E). Reiterate Outperform with strong Asian operations still its main catalyst while potential M&As could provide icing on the cake.


What Happened
The broader market has pulled back from its May high and TAT has not been spared, retreating20% in the last one month. As there have been no operational hiccups at the company, market sentiment and the overhang from AIF’s voluntary conversion could be the culprits, in our opinion.

What We Think
The slight negative aspect of its operations, if any, is currency-related via translation effects. Yet, we believe the dent on FY14-15 numbers will only be 2.5-4%,at the most, after speaking with management. This is not surprising, as in recent quarters, higher revenue contributions had been flowing in from Singapore and other ASEAN markets, at the expense of Australia. Contributions from Australia have been generally affected by weaker demand in the mining sector this year. We are sticking to our view that near-term earnings will increasingly be spurred by Singapore and other ASEAN markets (Thomson Line construction in Singapore in 2H13, rail projects in Malaysia and Thailand) and Hong Kong.

What You Should Do
We continue to believe that the group can achieve our forecasts for the next few years. Even without massive capex outlays, organic growth should be good, in our view, with efficient capital usage. The last four quarters had marked the start of a potential 3-year boom, in all probability. Accretive M&As could provide icing on the cake, further catapulting TAT’s growth.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: CIMB-Research,
Publish date: 08/07/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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