Saturday, July 20, 2013

Parkson Holdings - Muted outlook in the near term

Parkson Holdings -
Price Target:4.43
Last Price:3.78
Muted outlook in the near term

- We reaffirm our HOLD recommendation on Parkson Holdings (PHB), with an unchanged fair value of RM4.43/share, based on a sum-of-parts valuation.

- We met up with Parkson Retail Asia’s (PRA) management recently and continue to view muted near-term earnings, underpinned by cautious sentiment in Malaysia, post general election and weakness in Vietnam’s economy.


- The re-rating catalysts for PRA, we believe, are premised on:- (1) scaling up of expansion into Indonesia and a faster-thanexpected turnaround of new stores; and (2) recovery in the Vietnamese economy.

- We opine that Indonesia’s growth would remain buoyant, offering greater potential compared to Malaysia as the Parkson brand is already matured, having 39 stores and two new stores in FY14F.

- Indonesia would not only benefit from the growing middle class to support its expansion, but its dual branding strategy consisting of Centro and Parkson, would enable it to have an easier and greater penetration into other cities. Present focus is to expand out from Java Island. Parkson’s expansion would be concentrated on the first-tier cities. Five new stores are in the pipeline for FY14F.

- Despite an economy slowdown in Vietnam, the group had been proactively looking to secure good leases and locations, to capture and be ready for the upswing in Vietnam’s economy. Although having just eight stores, Parkson’s premium brand commands c.60% market share, given its first mover advantage as a modern mall concept.

- Leveraging on its experience in Vietnam, PRA’s penetration into Myanmar and Cambodia, is part of its long-term strategy. The Parkson brand is the first mover advantage into such underserved market. Parkson Myanmar had opened in May, while Cambodia is earmarked for 2QFY14.

- The VAT introduction at Odel Plc is expected to have a short impact for the group and would normalised thereafter. Margins are expected to be under pressure as the full impact could not be passed on to consumers.

- Given PHB’s earnings growth vulnerability to the adverse change from a macro perspective, particularly in China’s deceleration of SSSG, PHB FY13F earnings outlook is likely to come below FY12’s by 30%. We think China’s FY13F SSSG would remain at a negative territory of 2%, impacted by the competitive retail landscape and ageing store portfolio, coupled with challenges posed by online brands given its much lower price advantage.

- In light of the lacklustre earnings growth and uncertainty over any improved macroeconomic conditions, we maintain our HOLD call.

Source: AmeSecurities


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: http://klse.i3investor.com/
Publish date: 19/07/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock