Friday, July 19, 2013

Mapletree Logistics Trust 1QFY14: Stable Performer (UOBKH)

Mapletree Logistics Trust
Share Price S$1.10
Target Price S$1.29
1QFY14: Stable Performer

Results in line with expectations as the impact of yen depreciation on revenue and NPI was fully hedged, while borrowing costs fell 20% qoq due to lower average interest rates (down 50bp qoq). In 1QFY14, MLT acquired a S$32m property in Korea and we anticipate more acquisitions in the year ahead as MLT has over S$250m headroom. Maintain BUY with unchanged target price of S$1.29 based on DDM (RR: 6.9%, terminal: 1.5%).


Results
• Results in line with expectations. Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) reported 1QFY14 distributable income of S$48.7m (+6% yoy, +16% qoq) or a DPU of 1.80 S cents (+6% yoy, +4%qoq). 1QFY14 DPU of 1.80 S cents (inclusive of divestment gains of 0.02 S cent) is in line with our expectations, accounting for 25.3% of our full-year DPU estimate of 7.1 S cents. Net S$4.96m gain from divestment of 30 Woodlands Loop will be distributed over eight quarters. This translates into S$0.6m per quarter or about 2.5 S cents per unit.

• Revenue down on yen depreciation but impact mitigated by hedges. 1QFY14 revenues fell 2% yoy due to the depreciation of the yen offset by positive rent reversions, while NPI fell 3% yoy due to higher operating costs from conversion of single-user assets into multiuser facilities and also higher term contract rates. The impact of the dip in revenues and NPI was mitigated by income hedges. MLT has hedged 90% of its FY14 distributable income.

• Borrowing costs fell by 20% qoq led by lower interest rates, which were down 0.5ppt qoq to 1.9%, due to new interest rate swaps and fixed rate notes of 4-7 years tenor entered into during the quarter to replace expiring interest rate hedges. MLT enjoys lower interest costs as 70% of its debt is denominated in the yen.

• Portfolio occupancies dipped 0.3ppt qoq to 98.2% due to lower occupancies in China (down 2.9ppt to 95.6%), while leases renewed during the quarter registered a 17% positive rental reversion, largely due to new leases in Hong Kong and Singapore. MLT has renewed 33% of the leases due to expire in FY14.

Stock Impact
• Strong 94% pre-commitments for Mapletree Benoi Logistics Hub (fmr 21/23 Benoi Sector), which is ahead of former indications of 60-80% pre-commitments. In June, MLT had announced that Menlo Worldwide Logistics will commit to over 50% of space at the facility. Upon completion in 4Q13, the project will yield a GFA of 1m sf, up four-fold from 250,000sf previously. The balance of the building remains under advanced negotiations.

• S$32m acquisition of The Box Centre in South Korea for KRW28.75b (S$32m) completed in July at a NPI yield of 8.4%. This is a modern 300,000sf warehouse completed in Mar 12 located approximately 60km from Seoul. MLT’s gearing is expected to increase to 34.6% (~39% inclusive of perpetual securities) post-acquisition, which leaves a potential debt headroom of S$250m before reaching a gearing of 45%.

• Stable and resilient portfolio with a weighted average lease expiry of 5.1 years and diversification across geographies and customers. Pipeline from sponsor Mapletree Investments remains significant at over S$400m.

Earnings Revision/Risk
• None.

Valuation/Recommendation
• Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of S$1.29, based on DDM (required rate of return: 6.9%, terminal growth: 1.5%).

Share Price Catalyst
• Positive newsflow on rising industrial rentals and capital values, yieldaccretive acquisitions, redevelopment or build-to-suit opportunities
• Redevelopment and asset enhancement plans for portfolio properties.




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: UOB Kay Hian research
Publish date:19/07/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock