Saturday, July 27, 2013

Mapletree Commercial Trust: Strong 1Q performance (DBSV)

Mapletree Commercial Trust,
 Buy S$1.24,
Strong 1Q performance
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.50 (Prev S$ 1.53)

•Strong set of results, making up 27% of our full year forecast
•Robust organic growth from Vivocity and PSA Building
•Maintain Buy, TP S$1.50

Highlights
Good 1Q showing. MCT continued to deliver a sterling set of results,  with topline growing 26% y-o-y to S$64.4m while NPI improved by a better 31% to S$47.1m in 1QFY14. Distributable income was 26% higher y-o-y at S$36.3m, translating to 1.753Scts DPU and making up 27% of our FY14 forecast. Earnings expansion continued to be driven by contributions from Mapletree Anson as well as higher rents and portfolio occupancy of 98.3%. Excluding Mapletree Anson, revenue and NPI rose by a commendable 11% and 14% y-o-y, respectively.


Organic growth from Vivocity and PSA Building. Income from Vivocity improved 9% with retail leases renewed at 43% higher than preceding levels. Shopper traffic at the mall grew 1.2% to 13.3m for the quarter while tenant sales expanded 5.6% to S$212.1m. Meanwhile, revenue from PSA Building was up 21% y-o-y as rent renewals were transacted at 24% higher than previous levels. Occupancy at ARC was also slightly higher at 81.3%. As a result, c.60% of expiring leases in FY14 have been recontracted to date.

Our View
2Q to benefit from positive 1Q reversions and remaining reversions. With the remaining 7.3% of retail leases to be renewed for FY14 and another 14.7% for FY15, we believe MCT will likely continue to deliver positive growth, although at a slightly more moderate pace, as its portfolio leases are brought up to market levels.  
High proportion of fixed debt. In terms of capital management, gearing remains relatively unchanged at 40.8% and with 74.5% of its debt having fixed rates, interest cost should remain stable at 2.22%. There is no refinancing due in FY14. The REIT has also put in place a dividend reinvestment scheme, which should boost cashflow retention in the longer run and is positive for capital management purposes.

Recommendation
Maintain Buy. We continue to like MCT for its solid organic growth prospects, underpinned by strong performances at Vivocity and PSA Building as well as stable rental escalations from MLHF building. Potential catalysts still remain from the anticipated purchase of MBC, which would likely be accretive. The stock is currently trading at 1.16x P/Bk and at 5.3% yield for FY14. Maintain BUY with a slightly lower TP of S$1.50 as we adjust for higher risk free rates




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: DBSV-Research,
Publish date: 25/07/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock