Thursday, July 25, 2013

Malaysian Bulk Carriers : Set to sail (Hwang)

Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd
Trading Buy
Set to sail

• More upside, less downside. Malaysian Bulk Carriers (Maybulk; stock code 5077; RM1.80) offers an interesting trading proposition for investors to ride on an earnings rebound-cum-value unlocking play. The Group’s fundamentals were previously hit by depressed bulk shipping charter rates. But its fortunes appear to be turning up as charter rates in the dry bulk shipping industry could have hit bottom already. Tracking this, the Baltic Dry Index (a global barometer for freight rates for dry bulk carriers) – after slumping from a 3-year high of 2,995 in Sep 2010 to a recent low of 801 in early Jun – has since climbed 41% (see Chart 1).

On the assumption that the shipping charter rates recovery would persist, our research team anticipates Maybulk’s earnings to jump from a trough of RM49m in FY13F going forward. In particular, we have projected a net profit of RM74m (+51% year-on-year) for 2014 and RM113m (+53% year-on-year) for 2015 after penciling in an annual rise in average charter rate of 5% next year and 10% the following year.

Our existing fundamental rating for the stock is Buy with a target price of RM2.10 (based on a forward P/BV multiple of 1.2x, which represents its mean valuation post-listing in Dec 03). Thus, given its current undemanding FY14F P/BV of 1.0x (just slightly above its historical low), we reckon upside potential for Maybulk outweighs its downside risks. An added catalyst in this financially-strong group (net cash of RM96.5m or 9.6 sen per share as of end-Mar 13) is its plan to unlock value by listing its 21%-owned PACC Offshore Services Holdings (a provider of offshore marine support services in the oil & gas industry) in Singapore by end of this year or early next year. We estimate Maybulk’s stake may conservatively worth RM870m (pegged at FY13F P/E of 12x) or 87 sen per Maybulk share.

• Positive technical outlook. Technically speaking, Maybulk could be on its way to advance further after bouncing up from a double-bottom pattern (see Chart 2). Following a recovery from a low of RM1.29 in late Dec last year, the stock reached a fresh 17-month high of RM1.89 on Tuesday. Riding on the positive momentum, the share price is set to plot higher highs and higher lows possibly within an upward sloping channel going forward. We have set resistance targets at RM2.10 (first) and RM2.65 (second), translating to potential upsides of 17% and 47%, respectively. Trading Buy. The shares will likely find support in the RM1.48-RM1.70 area (representing downside risks of 6%-18%).

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: HWANGDBS Vickers Research
Publish date: 25/07/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
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做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
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每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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