Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Malaysia seen as defensive market (DB)

Malaysia seen as defensive market
We were marketing our latest views on Malaysia to investors in London and Europe over the last week.

With the volatility in regional markets, Malaysia has gained attention because of its relative defensiveness. Over the last two months, the KLCI was has been flat compared to the ASEAN average of -7.2%, while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan declined -7.6%. Investors agreed that Malaysia looks expensive and bottom up stock picking was important.

From a top-down perspective, investors wanted to know whether there were any changes in the way the country is being governed since the May elections. Investors were worried about any potential leadership change at UMNO elections later this year. Also, there was a little disappointment in that there has been no concrete news of when the government will implement the GST and reductions in fuel subsidy, to reduce budget deficit and debt levels of the country.


Looking at the individual sectors, property gained the most amount of attention because of robust locked-in sales at many property developers, Malaysia's favorable demographic and more controlled property price appreciation. Recent government measures to rein in mortgage loans are not seen to be materially detrimental to the sector. Besides the two large caps UEM Sunrise ad SP Setia, there were also questions on Mah Sing, Sunway and IJM Land.

There was reasonable interest in Tenaga too because valuations are not demanding relative to the rest of the Malaysian market and its historical trading band. The government's plan to introduce fuel cost pass-through mechanism is also a potential catalyst. For 3QFY13 result to be announced on 18th July, we expect Tenaga to report stronger core NP of c RM1.0-1.1bn (vs 1QFY13’s RM1.04bn and 2QFY13’s RM880m).

The Iskandar story is not as well known as we initially thought. While most investors were aware of it, all wanted to know more details and updates. Our FITT report continues to be well received (see report dated 17 May, 2013 entitled High Speed Transformation). Unfortunately, there was a little frustration on the lack of stocks to buy for this thematic.

DB view:
P/E valuations for the Malaysian market of 17-18x 2013E are not compelling relative to 8-10% EPS growth and hence bottom-up stock picking is important. Upcoming 2Q reporting season not expected to be exciting. Our top Buy picks in Malaysia are IHH, Maxis, SP Setia and Tenaga. With recent share price weakness in UEM Sunrise (Buy, TP of MYR 4.22), we believe that stock looks a lot more compelling. Our recent conversation with management in London sounded positive (see note issued by Aun Ling last week titled “UEM Sunrise - dbAccess Malaysia & Thailand Corporate Day Highlights”).




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: Deutsche Bank
Publish date: 16/07/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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