Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Genting Singapore: Neutral For Now (RHB)


Genting Singapore: Neutral For Now
(NEUTRAL, S$1.46, TO: S$1.47)

Following our recent conversation with Genting Singapore’s management, our NEUTRAL call is maintained with our FV tweaked slightly to SGD1.47, pegged at 10x FY14 EV/EBITDA. FY13 and FY14 earnings forecasts are cut by 12.4-13.6%. The stock’s key re-rating catalyst is the potential passing of a gaming bill in Japan.

Casino growth to come with higher default risks. We expect contribution from the group’s casino operation to grow steadily by mid- to high-single digits.


This will hinge on a continued influx of tourist arrivals in Singapore, which welcomed more than 13m visitors in 2011. We believe the fast-growing number of Chinese tourists will propel RWS’ growth, given that these visitors make up half of Genting Singapore’s VIP accounts. However, the increase may also potentially lead to greater default risks – as the group had witnessed in FY12, when its impairment on receivables surged 18.1% y-o-y to SGD143.0m – especially if the global economic recovery slows. For now, we are forecasting for impairment on receivables of SGD140m p.a. from FY13F to FY15F.

Nothing concrete in Japan yet. Progress on the group’s potential entry into Japan’s gaming market is largely status quo for now pending more material developments in relation to legislation governing domestic casinos. Rumour has it that the proposed gaming bill may be submitted to parliament by the end of this month. The current legislative session ends in June. We expect more new developments to unfold in 2H this year. Meanwhile, sources suggest that the pachinko industry has been chalking up JPY20trn-JPY30trn in income every year. Given the size of this market, we believe Genting Singapore is likely to rope in a domestic partner with local knowhow to minimize the execution risks.

Revising earnings forecast. Following an internal coverage reallocation, we are revisiting and revamping our earnings model on the stock. This leads to 12.4%-13.6% cuts in our FY13F and FY14F net profit forecasts, as we trim our target win rate as well as incorporate potential losses from its newly-opened Marine Life Park. We also take this opportunity to introduce our FY15F net profit forecast of SGD965m.



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: RHB-Research,
Publish date: 14/04/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock