Thursday, June 14, 2012

GLS 2H12: Focus On ECs And Suburban Regional Centres (UOBKH)

What’s New
• The Ministry of National Development (MND) unveiled a list of 39 sites (15 confirmed and 24 reserved) in the 2H12 Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme. These consist of 26 residential sites, four commercial sites, six hotels sites and one commercial & residential site. These sites could yield 14,185 private residential units, 388,400sqm (4.2msf) gross floor area (GFA) of commercial space and 3,655 hotel rooms.

• No major surprises in the 2H12 GLS programme. The land sales reiterate the government’s focus on the supply side measures combined with calibrated demand-side measures to cool down the property market.

• Among developers, while we see weakness ahead in physical residential prices, we see value in selective property stocks that have over discounted the negative prospects. Ho Bee and CapitaLand are our top BUYs while City Developments is our top SELL.

• For REITs, we remain cautious on the outlook for the cyclical office, business park and high-tech segments, and prefer REITs with exposure to the defensive retail, industrial logistics and hospitality segments. Top picks include Suntec REIT, Frasers Centre point Trust, Cache Logistics Trust and CDL Hospitality Trusts.

• Supply remains high, targets mass market. The supply of 14,185 units (confirmed: 7,060, reserved: 7,125) is comparable with 1H12 supply of 14,140 units (7,020 confirmed, 7,120 reserved). However, the supply remains much higher than the average GLS supply of about 9,065 units over the last five years (2006-11), raising long-term oversupply concerns. A total of 3,120 EC units (22% of supply) were made available under the Confirmed List. This is 14% higher than in 1H12 and has been steadily increasing since 1H11, and is indicative of the government’s focus on catering for the sandwich class. The bulk 77% of the supply caters to the mass market, as in the last few rounds of the GLS.

• Signs of fatigue but selective sites continue to attract developers’ interest. Signs of developers fatigue are visible in some of recent massmarket sites with last two tenders receiving lukewarm response (five bids each) although bidding levels have remained in line with market expectations. Within the Confirmed List, we expect the sites in Bishan (located next to Sky Habitat) and Commonwealth Avenue to attract keen interest from developers due to their attractive locations.

• Commercial focus remains in the suburban regional centres with a new commercial site on the Confirmed List along Venture Avenue in Jurong Gateway near the Jurong East MRT. The site is expected to yield 723,000sf of space, with a minimum office GFA component, in order to provide opportunity for the development of affordable suburban offices.

A new commercial site at Cecil Street, near Capital Tower, estimated to yield 833,000sf of office and commercial space, has also been added to Reserve List. This, together with the white site at Marina View and the commercial site at Sims Avenue on the Reserve List will yield close to over 2.0m sf of office and retail space when triggered.

• Limited supply pipeline for hotel segment. The government added two hotel sites at Jurong Town Hall Road and East Coast Road under the Reserved List while the rest of four sites were carried forward from 1H12 GLS programme. There were none in the Confirmed List. The six sites can yield about 3,655 rooms, 40% below the supply level seen during 2H07. The limited supply of hotel land is supportive of the strong fundamentals in the hotel segment.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: UOB Kay Hian research
Publish date: 14/06/12

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