Thursday, March 1, 2012

Noble: Managing volatility (DBSV)

Noble Group
HOLD S$1.38
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.45
Managing volatility
• Profit recovered as expected, but 4Q11 earnings of US$72.2m (ex exceptionals) was below
• Energy and MMO underperformed, Agriculture came in line
• FY12-14F earnings cut by 11-23% on lower operating margin/MT assumptions • TP cut to US$1.11 from US$1.25 but expectations of a weaker SGD keep TP at S$1.45; retain HOLD

Energy dragged down earnings. Noble booked 4Q11 earnings of US$105.8m (-60% y-o-y). Excl. US$33.5m profit from Supply Chain assets, earnings came in at US$72.2m (from US$34.8m loss in 3Q11). While we did expect a recovery in earnings, operating profit from Energy was below due to production problems at Gloucester Coal which (1) experienced flooding in 3Q11 and was unable to recover lost volumes due to restrictions on rail haulage and (2) equipment issues at Donaldson. The segment was also hit by lower gas and power demand as a result of a mild US winter.

Agriculture performed rather well, considering peers' performance. We had expected FY operating profit of US$467m vs. actual of US$476.5m. We understand that China’s crushing business utilisation was low, but Noble had hedged part of its crushing operations in Timbues. Sugar also performed well, as it had locked in margins during a temporary rally in 4Q11. MMO business remained challenging. It booked operating margin of US$17.9m in 4Q11, which was below our US$23.3m estimate.

FY12-14F earnings cut by 11-23% after we imputed FY11 actual numbers and adjusted our operating margin/MT assumptions lower across the 3 main segments. We expect earnings recovery to be constrained by increased competition and reduction in Noble’s risk appetite. VAR (value at risk) has been cut from 0.86% in Feb11 to 0.35%in Dec11. In USD terms, our TP was cut by 11% to US$1.11. But, as we revised FY12F average USD/SGD rate to S$1.31 from S$1.25, this translated to S$1.45 TP. Maintain HOLD. Potential catalyst is regulatory approval for the merger of Gloucester Coal and Yanzhou scheduled for mid 2012.




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date: 29/02/12

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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