4Q11 slips into the red
FULLY VALUED RM1.04
Price Target : RM 0.70
• 4Q11 turned in an unexpected RM1.6m net loss
• No catalyst in sight, with new student intakes remaining weak in the near term
• Maintain Fully Valued and RM0.70 TP (pegged to 10x FY12 EPS)
Comment on Results
4Q11 turned in a net loss of RM1.6m against net profit of RM5.5m in 3Q11 and RM26.9m in 4Q10. This was because: (i) revenue tumbled to RM49.5m (-39% y-o-y/ -19% q-o-q) due to lower student enrolments; and (ii) EBITDA margin shrank to 3.2% (vs 3Q11’s 25.2% and 4Q10’s 36.8%) mainly because of higher overheads (staff cost).
Full year net profit of RM38.1m (+37% y-o-y) was short of our RM42.0m forecast. In essence, FY11 performance was hit by low new student intake of only c.2.1k (vs 5.5k in FY10). Consequently, revenue fell to RM250.2m (-21%), while EBITDA margin dipped to 25.7% (from 41.7% in FY10). The company declared a second interim dividend of 1.4 sen/share, taking FY11 DPS to 5.6 sen (implying 60% payout ratio).
Going forward, we see high earnings risk for Masterskill as it tries to attract new students by diversifying into non-healthcare related programs and post-diploma courses (refer to our Company Focus dated 20 Feb). We are keeping our forecast net profit of RM28.5m for FY12 (-25% y-o-y) and RM32.5m (+14% y-o-y) for FY13F,which assumes 3.8k and 6.5k new students, respectively. Assuming 50% dividend payout ratio (up from 40% previously), net yield works out to 3.3% (FY12) and 3.8% (FY13). Maintain Fully Valued rating and RM0.70 TP, pegged to 10x FY12F EPS of 7.0 sen.
Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: Hwang DBS Vickers Research
Publish date: 29/02/12