Tuesday, February 2, 2010

CRCT - JPM

Monday, February 1, 2010
CRCT - JPM
Portfolio still a work-in-progress

• FY09 results in line.
FY09 DPU = S$0.0814/unit
2H09 DPU of S$0.0406/unit

• Shift in leasing strategy. Management indicated that the negative rental reversion for 2H09 is partly due to the trust's strategic move towards a lower base rent but a higher turnover component lease structure. Total gross revenue did increase 2.9% Y/Y on a SSS basis. The new lease structure, in our view, would allow the trust to be more competitive in rent negotiations, but introduced a lot more volatility in earnings. We also estimate that overall rental will increase only if the revise GTO rent component equals to previous base rent.

• Still a work-in-progress portfolio. With management still trying out different lease structures and also different tenant mix, we see CRCT's portfolio still a work in progress. The operating performance is likely to be unexciting for the next 2 quarters in our view. Therefore, we have revised our FY10E - FY12E DPU estimates down by 3-5%. In addition, given management is unlikely to acquire assets from CMA, we have retained our long-term growth rate at a lower level of 3%.

• We retain our Neutral rating, but reduce our Dec-10 DDM based price target to S$1.25/unit as we lower our earnings estimates. Key risks to our rating and price target include surprises on operating fundamentals both on the upside or downside; and the uncertain timing of the introduction of China REIT code, which is likely to support or even lift up the valuation of the trust.

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
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做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

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“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
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每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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